I
read a book by Martin Wolf, called "The Shifts and the Shocks". In
economics terms, a shock mean a economy' performance is away from its trend but
will return back in the future; a shift mean a economy's trend is changed. The
difference seems so obvious; however, in the real life, sometimes, it is very
difficult to distinguish the difference between these two terms. The largest
problem is sometimes we do not know the value of our productions. For example,
if there is a rumor that using Phone A has a higher chance to get cancer, then
the price is very likely to decrease forever even if the rumor is proved to be
wrong. This should be a shock, as nothing really changes. However, the impact
shows it is a shift, as the price has been permanently changed. This is because
some people's expectations about the value of the phone have been affected
permanently. If some people believe there is a very small possibility that the
rumor could be true, then the public expected value of this phone will decrease.
From this example, we can see that a shift occurs when the accumulation of
changes in people's expectations does not equate to zero; otherwise, markets
will shock around the previous trend as the overall expectation does not
change.
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